The US has funded the Taliban since 2021 and will soon be funding Iran. Part of the pending Iran Deal is a US funded postwar ‘investment fund’ for Iran estimated at $300 billion, which an Iranian official described as a “reconstruction program” that would be promised to Iran in the event a final agreement was signed. Reported in NY Times, May 28, 2026.
To put this in perspective—since the US pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021, close to $3 billion in aid has been given to that country by US taxpayers. Sent for humanitarian aid through the UN and NGOs, there is no way avoid it going through the Taliban since they are in control of the country. The UN flew in physical shipments of U.S. currency to Afghanistan in weekly installments. This included roughly $1.8 billion in 2022 and $1.1 billion by August 2023. Information from a January 2024 Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) Report.
In both Iran and Afghanistan, the US spent billions to destroy a country, then billions to rebuild the country, yet the repressive regime remained in place in both instances, soaking up a fortune after the US left. In the case of Iran, it will get more than 100 times what Afghanistan has received post-war.
Summary: US will be giving billions to Iran, money not previously sent before the US attacked. On a far more costly scale, this repeats the decades-long mistakes made in the Middle East.
But what about other key components of the pending deal with Iran?
Opening the Strait After the Deal
To be clear, prior to the US attacking, the Strait of Hormuz was freely passed by all vessels with no fees or charges by Iran. The blockage was a direct result of the war.
According to the US, after the US-Iran deal, the Strait should be open to normal traffic in 30 days. According to Iran, they reserve the right to determine whether to impose some form of service fee for passing vessels. Clearly this remains a major point of contention in the deal.
Summary: Strait likely to be opened again, but it’s possible Iran charges fees for passage. The best possible outcome is the Strait returns to precisely how it was before the war began. Nothing has been gained by anyone, with the potential exception of Iran.
Iran’s Nuclear Program After the Deal
First, lets clarify where things stood before Trump came to office. Under the Iran nuclear deal that Obama negotiated in 2015 and Trump withdrew the US from in 2018 (the JCPOA), around $100 billion in Iranian foreign assets (which international sanctions had prevented Iran from accessing) were released. These nuclear-related sanctions were waived after Iran verifiably completed its initial obligations, showing no nuclear weapon development was occurring. Of the $100 billion of Iran’s assets, about half of it was tied up in Iranian foreign debts, so the actual amount that Iran was able to use was about $50 billion when the assets were released. Summary from the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation says that after Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile grew from roughly 200 kg in 2017 to approximately 5,000 kg by 2021, ultimately reaching an estimated 9,000 kg (20,000 lbs) by mid-2025. While the 2015 JCPOA deal restricted Iran’s stockpile to 300 kg and enrichment to 3.67%, U.S. withdrawal triggered a steady escalation in enrichment levels—peaking at 60% purity in recent years.
Because of this increase in enriched uranium supply, Trump authorized air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June of 2025. After the attacks, according to Trump, “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
In a more sober summary and report from November 2025 the Institute for Science and International Security said:
“Overall, satellite imagery indicates that Iran’s uranium enrichment program remains significantly set back. At present, Iran does not appear able to enrich uranium in any significant manner or make gas centrifuges in significant numbers. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities, its facility to produce uranium hexafluoride (UF6) and its centrifuge manufacturing and research and development facilities remain severely damaged or destroyed.
Unlike the enrichment-related sites attacked, select nuclear weaponization sites show extensive clean-up efforts. Based on satellite imagery, at least three weaponization-related sites that were attacked have undergone cleanup activities that appear to include salvaging of remaining equipment and thus may be the prelude to rebuilding or related to sanitization activities.”
So—is Iran rebuilding their nuclear facilities? Absolutely. Is a nuclear weapon imminent? Highly unlikely.
With this status in mind, enter the notorious Trump-Netanyahu meeting February 11, 2026. Trump moved from a position that Iran wasn’t an immediate threat (acknowledged by outside assessment) to a new position that war with Iran should happen immediately.
Interviews with people present in the meetings were summarized by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan:
“In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic.
At one point, the Israelis played for Mr. Trump a brief video that included a montage of potential new leaders who could take over the country if the hard-line government fell. Among those featured was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, now a Washington-based dissident who had tried to position himself as a secular leader who could shepherd Iran toward a post-theocratic government.”
After those meetings, Trump was committed to regime change in Iran and the wheels of war were set in motion. By February 28th, the US and Israel had attacked Iran.
If you are keeping score in the nuclear game:
- Obama enters into an agreement (JCPOA) with Iran in 2015 where their previously sanctioned assets are released in exchange for abandoning the pursuit of nuclear weapons and allowing UN inspectors to track nuclear activity.
- Trump pulls the US out of the JCPOA in 2018
- Iran’s nuclear program immediately accelerates, peaking in 2025
- Trump becomes nervous about Iran’s nuclear momentum and decides to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025
- Confirmed by various sources, Iran’s ability to create a nuclear weapon is significantly reduced
- Trump meets with Netanyahu in Feb 2026 and decides to go to war
Which brings us back to the point—what it is in the current deal pertaining to nuclear activity in Iran? According to reporting by Erika Solomon and Farnaz Fassihi, supposedly “a pledge that the two sides will commit to negotiating the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium. Those talks would happen during the second phase of negotiations…“
Of particular absurdity, one of the conditions for Iran turning over some of their nuclear materials and agreeing to oversight is a return to Obama’s JCPOA terms—sanctions against Iran would be lifted and they could gain access to an estimated $24 billion of their own money frozen in banks abroad.
Summary: nuclear talks are deferred beyond the initial agreement, and the pre-war nuclear status quo for Iran remains in place for now. But, we are likely to end up with an agreement similar to the one in place before Trump ended it.
So to summarize the whole war and likely outcome of the deal being considered:
1. Regime Change: Trump goal not achieved.
– Still headed by fringe Islamists, and many reports indicate even more repressive and emboldened.
2. US now funding Iran: Trump gave the US a long-term liability.
– Iran funding did not exist before the war, but the US will likely be giving Iran billions for years.
3. Strait of Hormuz: Trump accomplished nothing.
– At best, the status of the Strait returns to the pre-war norm, making the war an utterly pointless exercise. At worst, Iran has a new funding source charging ships for passage.
4. Nuclear program: Trump accomplished nothing.
– At best, things return to the 2015 JCPOA-style norms, which Trump has repeatedly criticized and withdrew the US from in 2018.
And that’s what your increased prices, inflation, and exploding debt bought you—a likely return to the status quo…less billions of dollars and thousands of Iranian lives.
